2025 Kentucky Derby: Starters, Odds, and Expert Picks
The clouds are looming over Louisville, auguring stormy days ahead of the 2025 Kentucky Derby race on May 3rd. Though ‘the Sun may shine bright on my Old Kentucky Home'—as the lyrics go, a wet track like we saw in 2019 is all but imminent.
The average odds for the Churchill Downs showdown are as lucrative as ever. Journalism still remains the one to beat, although the odds have altered slightly in favor of those with past experiences running in rain-soaked fields.
Join us as we take a closer look at the most propitious runners in the 2025 edition of Kentucky Derby. We look at the event itself, most promising starters, best odds, and give a few bold predictions for the upcoming race (hint: go Luxor Cafe).
Run for the Roses
Dubbed ‘The Greatest Two Minutes in Sports,' the Kentucky Derby is the most anticipated horse racing event on the calendar. On the first Saturday in May, a total of 21 horses will race it out at the historic Churchill Downs racetrack for the sweet $5 million reward.
The race has historically been one of the most lucrative betting events all year. On average, the last four Derbys paid out 35:1 for the winner, 649:1 for the top two runners, and a staggering 4,900:1 for the trifecta!
Almost a third of Kentucky Derby races (45 out of 150) have been won and lost by a length or less. Last year, Mystik Dan won by a whisker ahead of Sierra Leone and Forever Young, marking the third year in a row that won by a Major Longshot.
2025 Kentucky Derby Horses
This year's rain changes the complexion of Churchill Downs, but the Run for the Roses remains as open as it's ever been. Here's my pick of the top 5 starters to watch out for.
Journalism: Bokkie’s Favorite
If you ask the best bookies and Copilot AI, Journalism is the clear favorite for the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby.
The colt is unbeaten in 2025, winning San Felipe and scoring an impressive win at Santa Anita Derby. Speaking more broadly, Journalism sits on four wins and one show finish since he broke his maiden last November at Del Mar. Moreover, the reports of his stellar morning activity breed confidence in the budding superstar. Everything—the pedigree, recent form, the good workouts—points at Journalism as a clear favorite.
Even the pre-race luck is on his side, drawing the favorable No. 8 spot.
Sovereignty: Best Closer
Looking ahead from the No.18 spot is Sovereignty, a three-year-old colt with good speed and a mesmerizing closing power. He's the son of Into Mischief, who's very famous down at the Churchill Downs, having sired two of the last five Derby winners.
Sovereignty has raced four times in his career, winning two and coming up second twice. He is a powerful closer, scoring an impressive Equibase Speed of 99 in his maiden-breaking race last October. In the same race, he defeated another strong closer in Sandman, but his latest foray saw him lose to Tappen Street (withdrawn from the Derby) in Florida.
Citizen Bull: Bid for History
Clinching the No.1 post, Citizen Bull is the biggest loser of the post-position lottery. No horse has won it from this rail since Ferdinand 1986.
But the colt has an impressive career record of four wins in six starts, is another offspring of Into Mischief, and has a decorated trainer to back him up. Namely, Citizen Bull's bid for Derby marks the return of trainer Bob Baffert after a three-year ban. He'll have a point to prove in a bid to tie Ben Jones for the most wins in the competition. Citizen Bull's Equibase Speed has been improving in the last three races and no doubt he'll give everyone a run for their money.
Sandman: Most Improved Starter
Enter Sandman, a colt named after Metallica's hit song who's won three and show-finished twice in eight career starts. Sandman's latest outing was also his most successful. He won the Arkansas Derby with an impressive Equibase speed of 104, which has increased in his last five races.
As a powerful closer, Sandman is often at the mercy of whether there's much traffic around him towards the end race. The No.17 post position improves his chances, as the only other favorite in his vicinity is No.18 Sovereignty, who beat him last time around.
Luxor Cafe: Wet Track Bully
Luxor Cafe has a chance of making history by becoming the first Japanese horse to win the Derby. As the son of American Pharoah, the 2025 Triple Crown champion, he's inherited his father's penchant for longer distances, although most of his successes have been on the turf rather than dirt.
The junior has six starts in Japan and is on a four-win streak since breaking maiden last November. Luxor Cafe is blessed with the amazing closing speed that may favor the wet surface more than anyone else at the Derby: the colt has raced three times on wet tracks and won three of those.
2025 Kentucky Derby Predictions
It's no secret that I expect to see Luxor Cafe in the top three, given his pedigree on wet tracks. Heck, I even go as far as banking on the second, with top bookmakers like B.C. Game offering excellent odds for this scenario.
As for the win, it's difficult to look past Journalism. He has all the right cards, such as pedigree, training, workout, and improving stats. Third place is a toss-up between Sovereignty and Sandman, and I'm going with Sovereignty simply because he won the last time the two met mane to mane. Therefore, my trifecta is as follows:
- Journalism
- Luxor Cafe
- Sovereignty
Other horses who may prefer the ‘off' track and break into the top 3 are American Promise (broke his maiden on a muddy track at Oaklawn Park), the late addition Neoequos (has a perfect 1:1 record on wet), and Publisher (second at Oaklawn muddy and third in sloppy Churchill Downs).
In any case, the greatest two minutes in sports are not something you want to miss.
Milos Antic
Sports Betting Expert
Milos is a sports betting professional whose special skill involves sitting through countless hours of football fixtures. He entered the sports betting arena in 2017 and hasn't looked back since. He is that guy who gets stopped and asked for a handy betting tip or two. As an in-house betting expert for CryptoGamba, Milos takes much pride when results go the way he called them while always finding a fitting excuse when they don't.
