Lille vs Dortmund: Tips, Odds, and Match Preview

The round of 16 first leg between Dortmund and Lille was a chess match ending in a non-consequential 1:1 draw. The second leg has the makings of a gloves-off contest between two middleweights slugging it out until the last team standing.

Having drawn at the away ground, Lille will be encouraged to seal the deal at home where they are still unbeaten this UCL campaign. Les Dogues will probably try and do it the best way they know how-by keeping things tight and making life difficult for the German visitors.

BVB, on the other hand, have a chip on their shoulder following the remarkable UCL run last year, when they lost the finals to Los Blancos. Niko Kovač's side has displayed moments of brilliance this campaign, but its defensive liability should come as a concern.

UCL 2025 Dark Horse?

Lille has emerged as one of the most pleasant surprises of the 2024/25 Champions League campaign. Having finished the group stage in 7th place with 16 points, Génésio's side proved a formidable opponent at home, winning 3 games and drawing 1.

Their domestic campaign has suffered slightly, but Les Dogues are still sitting at 5th with only two points behind 3rd place and a consistent form in the last 30 days marred only by the unexpected cup exit against the second-tier Dunkerque.

They approach the second leg following a hard-fought 1:0 win over Montpellier, with most of the first team playing at the weekend. But that won't deter them from giving it all on Wednesday, March 12, and I expect the French to go through.

Lille Injury and Suspension News

Edon Zhegrova, Osame Sahraoui, and Tiago Santos are still sidelined with groin injuries. Ethan Mbappé, who was rested for the Montpellier game alongside Ismaily and Ngal'ayel Mukau, is a likely start at right back.

BVB Playing to Save the Season

The Signal Iduna Park face-off showed both Dortmund's strengths and weaknesses this season. What they lack in consistency, the German side makes up for it by having moments of brilliance. It's just a question of whether Serhou Guirassy, Jamie Gittens, and Julian Brandt have the wherewithal to show it on the night.

The BVB Bundesliga season is far from ideal. Dortmund are sitting in 10th spot, 7 points behind the top four. The weekend's loss against Augsburg has put even more pressure on Dortmund to progress to the quarter finals. They'll rightly be looking at ex-Lille stalwart Serhou Guirassy to provide moments of magic, the top goal scorer this UCL season with 10.

Dortmund Injury & Suspension News

Dortmund doesn't face any suspensions but will be without Felix Nmecha and Nordsjælland loanee Daniel Svensson, both due to knee injuries. As a result, Ramy Bensebaini will likely start at left-back.

Lille vs Dortmund Prediction

This game is tough to call, perhaps the toughest of all second-leg round of 16 fixtures. I lean towards a low-scoring draw with the home team standing victorious at the end, courtesy of Bruno Génésio's tactical prowess.

I have a feeling that Lille will qualify (1.89 at betpanda.io) but not without extra time. I can see the game ending in a low-scoring draw, the odds of which are 3.45 at BC.GAME.

Combining the two means using Stake’s generous 12.00 for Lille advancing in extra time.

CryptoGamba tip: Lille in overtime – 12.00 @Stake