UFC 314: Betting Tips, Odds, & Fight Analysis

Say what you will about Dana White, the UFC knows how to make great events. This weekend, there’s another epic showdown ready to take place in the form of UFC 314, slated for April 12 inside the Kaseya Center, home of the Miami Heat.

The biggest fight and headliner of the event is the bout between Alex Volkanovski and Diego Lopes for the featherweight title. While that one is surely a banger, let’s take a look at all five fights on the Main Card, check out the best odds for each, and make a couple of fight-night predictions.

Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes

The matchup between Krylov and Reyes features two fighters who are ranked in the Top 11 of the light heavyweight division, with Krylov sitting eighth in the ranking and Reyes 11th. The body of work in recent years isn’t kind to Krylov, though neither him nor Reyes have been posting eye-popping results in recent years.

This will be Krylov’s first appearance at the UFC level since March 2023, and while he’s gone 5-4 during his time with the promotion, his most recent fight – again, over two years ago – finished with a submission victory over Ryan Spann. Meanwhile, Reyes is coming off back-to-back wins over Dustin Jacoby and Anthony Smith, though those have been his lone two wins since October 2019. It’s difficult to predict this one, but if you press me against the wall and put me into a headlock, I’d go Krylov and jump on BC.Game’s odds of 1.52.

Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva

Jean Silva is not ranked in the featherweight division, but don’t be surprised if that changes after this fight against Mitchell. After all, there’s a reason why Silva has the lowest odds among all five favorites in the UFC 314 Main Card. The likely Silva win is sitting at 1.40 @ Stake, and I’d be willing to pull the trigger.

Silva has recorded all of his wins by either KO or TKO, and he’s expected to showcase his aggressive approach once again against an opponent he’s been looking to face for quite some time. Silva took advantage of his four-fight winning run by calling out Mitchell right after his first-round stoppage of Melsik Baghdasaryan in February. Silva got his wish granted, and a win here against an opponent ranked #13 in UFC featherweight rankings would be a game-changer for his future career. It won’t be easy, but Silva has all the momentum.

Yair Rodríguez vs. Patricio Freire

Rodríguez is one of the best Latin American fighters in the UFC irrespective of the division, and his #5 rank in the featherweight class – one of the most competitive of the promotion – backs that up. He’s a massive favorite against an unranked opponent in Freire, and don’t be surprised if this fight ends relatively quickly.

Even though Freire has a 36-7-0 record throughout his career, this will be his debut at the UFC level, and there’s a chance the occasion might be just too big for him, especially since Freire isn’t exactly young at 37. Rodriguez also has a clear advantage in size and reach (he’s 5’11” compared to Freire’s 5’5”). Rodríguez should win easily here, and it wouldn’t be the worst thing to imagine a relatively quick bout. Stake has the best odds for such a scenario, with 2.32 for under 2.5 total rounds, whereas a Rodriguez KO win is 3.85.

Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett

Chandler might be ranked #7 in the lightweight division, but it’s impossible to ignore that he will face an opponent eight years his junior with insane cardio levels, and who also possesses a clear advantage in both height and reach. Pimblett stands at 5’10” with a 73-inch reach, whereas Chandler is 5’8” with a 71.5” reach. Chandler was one of the best fighters in the UFC during his prime years, but those days are long gone, which is why Pimblett is the odds-on favorite to win here.

Pimblett is ranked #12 in the division, but a win here would propel him into the Top 10 – and possibly even higher. Pimblett has caught the UFC by storm during his 6-0 run to begin his time with the company – a stretch that includes four post-fight bonuses due to performance – but Chandler will be his toughest test to date. On the other hand, Chandler has lost four of his last five bouts, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he adds another line to the defeat column after this weekend. A quick prediction: Pimblett under 2.5 (1.57 at Playbet.io)

UFC 314: Alex Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes

The bout between Volkanovski vs. Lopes is the headliner of the UFC 314 event. It’s also the fight that will decide the next champion of the featherweight division. Volkanovski is the odds-on favorite and enters the bout as the candidate to secure the vacant belt. Still, he shouldn’t get complacent against Lopes, as the Brazilian enters the fight on the heels of a dominant five-fight winning streak.

There is enough body of work to support Volkanovski as the favorite here. For starters, no one at the UFC level has beaten him outside of champions Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria. While it was believed that the Australian would eventually rematch Topuria for the belt, but the latter decided to move up to lightweight, vacating his 145-pound belt in the process. In other words, Volkanovski now has a chance to regain his belt at the age of 36, but he faces a tough customer in Lopes.

It would be foolish to overlook Lopes, and he has a realistic chance of winning the title over the veteran Australian. Lopes will have a slight height advantage (5’11” vs. 5’6”) and a five-inch reach advantage here, and that could prove to be a difference. But to make the physique count, Lopes would need to find a way to control Volkanovski’s volume striking. In any case, there’s a strong chance this fight will go the distance. Once again, Stake at 2.17 is the best place to bet on this.