Pogačar, Vingegaard, and the Winding Tour de France 2025
The greatest prize in cycling is looming large and only two people look ready to take it. Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar won the last five Tour de France races, and few can look past the duo for the 2025 edition.
But before we go into the thick of things and cover their rivalry in more detail, let’s take a brief look at the official route.
2025 Tour de France Route
As announced, the Grand Départ for the 23-day-long race will take place in Lille and wind through the mountainous stages of the Pyrenees and Alps. The racers will touch base on five summit finishes, the iconic Mont Ventoux among them, before finishing at the Champs-Élysées in Paris.
It’s the first time since 2020 that the whole race takes place in France. Did I mention how long the track is? It’s 3,338.8 km.
Tadej Pogačar vs Jonas Vingegaard
It’s the Messi vs Ronaldo and Muhammad Ali vs Joe Frazier of the cycling world. Tadej Pogačar of UAE Team Emirates and Jonas Vingegaard of Team Visma are having their fifth clash on the Tour de France, and one of them will probably wear the yellow jersey in the end.
Their last four head-to-heads ended with two yellow jerseys apiece. The Slovenian scored an early win in 2021, adding to his dominant display the year prior. And just as everyone thought he’d dominate the sport for years to come and were ready to crown him the GOAT in waiting, the Danish newcomer turned up the heat.
Vingegaard would secure the yellow jersey in 2022 and 2023, both in direct duels against Pogačar, mostly thanks to his knack for high mountains and high temperatures. And indeed, for the better part of the year, the Slovenian was running away with all the accolades. But in the blistering heat of July, the Dane stole the headlights.
That is, until Pogačar’s vintage 2024, when the champ showed a dominant display and threw a right-back-at-ya at Vingegaard, who, truth be told, suffered a serious injury three months before the tour and was hardly his usual self.
Now, both fully fit and with two tours apiece, 2025 has all the weight of a decisive clash of two titans. Until 2026 comes around, that is.
Top 5 Favorites
Now, let’s look at the race in more detail to see what each of the top 5 riders must do to overcome the hurdle and claim the yellow jersey at the Champs-Élysées.
Tadej Pogačar
With three Tour de France races in his resume and a triple crown last year, the Slovenian has already etched his name in the annals of the sport. With 1.60 at Stake for winning stage 1, Pogačar is also the favorite in the head-to-head against Vingegaard.
Simply put, Tadej Pogačar is the best rider in the world who happened to come off his most dominant season of his career. To win the race, though, he’ll likely need to build up momentum before the mountains at stages like Mûr-de-Bretagne, for example. Also, he mustn’t let the hubris of winning the Dauphiné so dominantly get the better of him.
Jonas Vingegaard
The 28-year-old Dane proved his worth at the biggest stage. Thanks to his power of endurance and a never-give-up mentality, Vingegaard is more than capable of upsetting Pogačar. To do it, he’ll have to take the initial stages on the chin, bide his time until the mountains loom into view, and then make a run for it.
Most importantly, Vingegaard mustn’t let the dramatic, decisive loss at Critérium du Dauphiné earlier this month leave much of an impression. The grand tour, as it were, is its own beast, and Vingegaard proved twice that he can tame it.
Remco Evenepoel
For many a third wheel in the Pogačar/Vingegaard cog, Remco Evenepoel nevertheless proved that he can get the better of both, albeit not on the biggest stage. Coming fourth at Dauphiné wasn’t spectacular, but the Belgian showed a remarkable potential to improve dramatically between the Dauphiné and the Tour de France.
In his debut last year, he came third. To stand a chance, Evenepoel of Soudal-QuickStep will have to take the yellow in the opening week. Whether he can then withstand the onslaught is another question, but he’s nevertheless podium-ready.
João Almeida
Almeida is another rider who had a successful tour debut last year (he came fourth), and if team duties allow, he can mix things up here, as well.
In 2025, the Portuguese won the Itzulia Basque Country and the Tour de Romandie. Granted, the level of competition isn’t the same, but Almeida has shown a remarkable potential when left to his own wits.
But he won’t be. Almeida’s primary concern will be securing the win for teammate Pogačar. If the latter runs away with it, Almeida might get a sniff at the podium.
Primoz Roglič
Is the fourth time the charm for Primoz Roglič of Red Bull–Bora–Hansgrohe, after finishing all three Tour de France appearances with abandon? If he doesn’t overreach, yes, but the pair Pogačar and Vingegaard have moved the goal posts so much that trying to keep up has been a fool’s errand.
Nevertheless, Roglič is a perennial tour threat. If he can muster his time-trial strength and finish in style like he did at the 2024 Vuelta a España, Primoz can enter the mix for the third.
Tour de France 2025 Predictions
There are no secrets. The 2025 Tour de France is Tadej Pogačar’s to lose. Jackbit has him at 1.36 compared to Vingegaard at 3.40, and he has all the tools to win comfortably. The third place is a toss-up between Evenepoel and Almeida, and I’m edging ever so slightly in the way of the Belgian (2.25 at Jackbit).
As for top 10 finishes, Florian Lipowitz is a good shout. Securing third at the Critérium du Dauphiné is no mean feat, and will do wonders for the German’s confidence ahead of the main grand slam of the cycling scene.
John Doe
Casino Expert
