2026 FIFA World Cup Qualifiers: Analysis and Summary of Current Qualifiers Run

The 2026 FIFA World Cup Qualifiers are in full swing, and it's beginning to look like a decisive time for several countries across the world. Regions such as South America (CONMEBOL), Asia (AFC), and Oceania (OFC) already have representatives who will be present in the tri-nation tournament to be held next year in the United States, Mexico, and Canada.

Let's examine what's happening around the world since the 2026 World Cup is roughly a year and a few months away. We'll analyze what's going on in the qualifiers in several areas of the world except Europe, as the UEFA qualifiers only started this past month and are played simultaneously with the UEFA Nations League.

Everything Is up for Grabs in South America

From a numerical perspective, the World Cup Qualifiers in CONMEBOL are probably the “easiest” to clinch a berth, as 70 percent of the confederation will go to the World Cup in one way or another. There are 10 teams in the South American region, and the first six will clinch a direct berth, while the seventh will have to participate in a playoff round. With four matches left in the schedule, most of the emotion lies in seeing which team will secure that elusive seventh place.

Argentina has already qualified and, if nothing odd happens, they should end the qualifiers in first place and as a clear-cut candidate to win the World Cup once again. Ecuador, Uruguay, Brazil, Paraguay, and Colombia are on the verge of securing direct berths again, but the performances of these teams have varied. Brazil recently sacked their manager, while Colombia and Uruguay are under heavy pressure following a drop in form. Meanwhile, Ecuador are on the rise and Paraguay have looked unstoppable under the tutelage of Gustavo Alfaro.

The most significant doubt is learning which team will finish in seventh place. Four teams are still vying for that spot: Venezuela (15 points), Bolivia (14 points), Peru (10 points), and Chile (10 points). Bolivia might hold the cards here, as they still have to play both Venezuela and Peru, but this will be a tight race that will go down to the wire.

Who Will End Up as the Top Scorer in the CONMEBOL Region?

Even though the six spots in the CONMEBOL are pretty much locked in, there’s an interesting race to see which player will end up as the top scorer in the Qualifying run. Lionel Messi leads the way with six goals, but Luis Díaz, Raphinha, Enner Valencia and Raphinha are strong choices as well.

Messi has the higher odds at winning that Golden Boot (3.10 @ BC.Game), but the other options can be solid bets, too. Diaz (4.70), Raphinha (5.10) and Valencia (5.10) are all names to look at in the final four matches, and even Darwin Núñez (8.50) might have a shot at well.

Asian Teams Beginning to Book Places

Japan became the first team to officially qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup apart from the three host nations during the March international window, and Iran soon followed them. Both teams have established themselves as authentic powerhouses in the AFC region, and with two rounds left, there are still four direct berths to grab, as well as the six teams that will participate in the playoffs.

As things stand now, South Korea, Uzbekistan, and Australia should end up securing direct berths in their respective groups, while the elusive sixth and final berth will be a three-team race in Group B between Jordan, Iraq, and Oman. Jordan might have the edge with 13 points, but Iraq has 12 and Oman 10, so there’s nothing decided – especially since the next round will see Jordan and Oman go head-to-head, while Iraq will take on South Korea.

As for the playoff berths and the qualification for the fourth round of the qualifiers, it’s pretty clear that the two teams that don’t qualify over that three-team race will secure playoff spots. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE are teams with a strong chance of reaching the fourth round of the qualification stages, one that will determine two other direct berths for the tournament. Remember that the AFC has eight direct berths in this new 48-team format.

The Road in Europe Is Just Beginning

The European road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup started in this international window in March after the conclusion of the group stage of the 2024-25 UEFA Nations League. Even though there’s a lot of history to be written in those matches, there’s a pretty good idea of which teams are considered favorites to secure a spot in the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup. Teams like Germany, France, Belgium, England, Portugal, Italy, Netherlands and Spain should cruise into their respective groups. However, other groups might deliver interesting races.

Let’s take a look at Group L, for instance. Croatia look like the odds-on favorite (1.52 @ BC.Game), but it’s not a secret that they’re not the powerhouse they used to be in the past. Thus, Czech Republic (2.90) could have a shot at stealing the first place from the Balkan side. Another interesting scenario is the one happening in Group B, where Switzerland (1.85) look like the candidate to earn first place, but Sweden (2.55) could make a run for that first place thanks to the goalscoring prowess of Viktor Gyokeres.

What’s the Situation of the World Cup Qualifiers in Africa?

Similar to what’s happening in Asia, Africa will also experience a considerable uptick in World Cup spots compared to recent years. Every team that wins its respective group in the current round will earn the nine direct berths. There are four matches left, which will be played between September and October this year.

Among the teams with the most significant chance of qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, we can find squads such as Egypt, DR Congo, South Africa, Morocco, Ivory Coast, Algeria and Tunisia. If it’s surprising NOT to see Nigeria, that’s because the Super Eagles have been slumping badly and have won just once in six matches (W1, D4, L1). They’re currently squared in Group C and are trailing South Africa, Rwanda and Benin in the race for a playoff berth, so there’s no question the scenario looks complicated for the Super Eagles.

Oceania Already Has Its Lone Representative

With Australia moving to the AFC several years ago, New Zealand became the team to beat in the Oceanic region. Thus, it’s not a surprise to see them clinch the lone direct berth in the OFC for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. New Caledonia won the playoff berth after losing in the final round of the qualifiers to New Zealand by a 3-0 score.

Which Teams Are the Early Favorites to Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

It’s too early to tell which teams are the favorites to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, especially since not even half of the field has qualified for the tournament yet. However, there’s a pretty good idea of which teams might go all the way. Some of the top favorites include Brazil, France and Spain, with all three teams are priced at 7.00 to lift the trophy, per Wild.io. Other candidates include England (8.00), Argentina (9.00), Germany (11.00), Portugal (17.00), the Netherlands (21.00) and Italy (21.00).